Predicting the Effects of Cell-Phone Dialing on Driver Performance

Legislators, journalists, and researchers alike have recently directed a great deal of attention to the effects of cellular telephone ("cell phone") use on driver behavior and performance. This paper demonstrates how cognitive modeling can aid in understanding these effects by predicting the impact of cell-phone dialing in a naturalistic driving task. We developed models of four methods of cell-phone dialing and integrated these models with an existing driver model of steering and speed control. By running this integrated model, we generated a priori predictions for how each dialing method affects the accuracy of steering and speed control with respect to an accelerating and braking lead vehicle. The model predicted that the largest effects on driver performance arose for dialing methods with high visual demand rather than methods with long dialing times. We validated several of the model's predictions with an empirical study in a fixed-based driving simulator.